Possible Time Line for Winter's Heart

NOTE: The analysis was written during the time when the cover art was released but before the hardback novel was released. Many of the conjectures below are inaccurate. Please read and enjoy my conjectures that are wrong and my conjectures that are correct! Don't bother telling me what is inaccurate about this article, because it will not be updated. If you are looking for an accurate article, please conider reading my "Winter's Heart Timeline Analysis" article.
-Grady

I am going to make a stretch and say that Winter's Heart will only take place during the heart of Winter in Randland. Judging that Path of Daggers took place during the late fall (possibly early winter), and also taking into account that his last few books have covered a time line of only a few months, it is safe to assume that Winter's Heart will only take place during the heart of Winter.

Taking things one step farther, I think most of the deciding battles that will take place between humans will take place in the book after Winter's Heart. I suspect that Winter's Heart will be a posturing novel for the springtime campaigns of the Seanchan, the Borderlanders, the Aes Sedai, and the Dragon's Legions.

• Rand al'Thor
• Perrin Aybara
• The Black Tower
• The Borderland Army
• Caemlyn : Elayne Trakand, Nynaeve al'Meara, Aviendha, & Friends
• Mat Cauthon
• The Gholam
• The Seanchan
• The Shaido
• Slayer
• Tar Valon : The Siege
• Whitecloaks
• Rebuttals

If Egwene becomes the Amyrlin of the White Tower, Rand will no longer need the Black Tower. Egwene will not engage Rand in open military conflict. With the Wise One's, Windfinders, and 30 Aes Sedai who serve Rand, he will no longer need the Black Tower to provide him with protection from a circle of 13 female channellers. However, this group will gentle Rand if it becomes apparent that his madness causes more harm than good.

According to the jacket text, Rand & Min left Cairhein without leaving word of their destination. Although his exact destination is difficult to determine at this point. It is obvious that he will leave orders for his people to prepare to throw the Seanchan back. Rand will not need to be directly involved with this proccess. The only clue that the jacket text gives is that his destination is one that Cadsuane would never suspect.

One thing that may help determine Rand's destination will be to determine the locations of Rand's opposition. When the Shaido left Kinslayer's Dagger and when the Riatin and Damodred alliance forces were destroyed by the bubble of evil, it wiped out all of Rand's military opposition in Cairhein. Elayne's presence in Caemlyn means that Rand may pull his forces out of Andor. Darlin's army is still in Haddon Mirk; however, their leader appears to be the permanent guest of Cadsuane. In other words, Tarein resistance is going nowhere. Rand appeared to send off a large amount of his forces to make sure his hold on Illian is secure. So it appears that Rand's influence in Andor, Cairhein, Tear, and Illian will not be challenged.

Rand's hold on Ghealdan is nonexistant eventhough Rand is sworn (by Perrin) to protect that country. Is this country Rand's unsuspecting destination? Cadsuane would never suspect it because she does not know that Perrin is in Ghealdan. Perhaps Masema will not need to travel so far to receive his audience with Rand.

One possible destination will be hunting down the defectors: Dashiva, Gedwyn, Rochaid, Torval, and Kisman. But I do not see how taking that action would be nothing but a futile waste of time. Besides, Cadsuane would suspect it.

He might head to the Black Tower. Well, maybe not. It would not make sense for Rand to go to the one place where is most likely to get killed. Besides, Casuane would suspect it.

Another destination Cadsuane would never suspect would be the Aiel Waste. But why would Rand go there?

Rand may decide to visit a stedding. But which one? And why would he visit the stedding? He is not the type to take alot of time for rest and relaxation.

At the end of Path of Daggers, Perrin met with The Prophet and they agreed to march to the Lord Dragon's summons. Meanwhile, Faile, Allendria, and Morgause (Maigdan) were busy being kidnapped by the Jumai Shaido. According the jacket text most of Perrin's time in Winter's Heart will be spent searching for Faile. He will be aware that the Shaido Aiel kidnapped his wife from Berelain. So much of Perrin's time will be spent searching for the Jumai Shaido.

Perrin should have little difficulty in locating the Jumai. With Grady and Neald helping in the search, Perrin should be on them like a duck on a beattle. This search and recovery mission should take little time because Perrin will not take the time to find reinforcements. Two Ashaman do not have enough fire power to over whelm all of the Shaido Wise Ones. However, Perrin's forces should be easily able to avoid any direct conflict. It looks like Perrin will not try to directly confront the Shaido. But he will try to free Faile, Maigdan, and Alleandra through some covert raid. Probably with the help of Grady, Gaul, Neald, Tallavor, and Elyas.

The only question in my mind is will The Prophet join the search. Masema hates Aes Sedai and the Aiel. At the end of Path of Daggers, Faile and Berelain (the only one to escape the Shaido's cluches) learned that Masema was meeting with the Seanchan. Masema may want to stay involved with Perrin in this endeavor: he may be able to keep the Seanchan informed of Perrin's where abouts and help Perrin kill some Aiel in the proccess. Perrin might agree to his aid so that the prophets hordes might help him find his wife. The Prophets forces may be the edge Perrin needs for an open assault on the Shaido. Although, Perrin will not want to risk killing his wife in a battle. But Perrin may insist that Masema join him when he learns that he has been meeting with the Seanchan.

According to the jacket text, Mazrim Taim has discovered to be a liar. This information is meaningless without knowing who found out he is a liar, and without finding out what he lied about. Robert Jordan may only let the reader know that Mazrim Taim is a liar, but none of the characters will know. The people that have the best chance of catching Mazrim Taim in a lie are Logain, Narishma, and Damer Flinn: Logain because he and Taim do not get along -- Narishma and Flinn because they out about staying away from Rand for a little bit (why not spy on the Black Tower?).

In a slightly more interesting direction, the Black Tower has some defectors. How will these defectors hurt the Ash'aman? Perhaps, an internal struggle similar to the White Tower's. Perhaps, they will all become Darkfriends to gain the Dark One's protection against the taint. Anything involving the Black Tower and conflict is a deadly stew.

If the taint from Saidin is not removed, the Black Tower has atleast another year of life. Afterwards, the Black Tower will destroy itself in madness unless bonding a male channeller improves a man's resistance to the taint.

The Borderland armies may not appear at all in Winter's Heart. RJ gave us a hint as to how fast that army can travel in the snow. Remember it took Elayne's party 2 days to travel ten miles through flat terrain in that snow. That added with the need for secrecy may slow that armies advance to a crawl. Though, I suspect that Rand will be focussed on defeating the Seanchan, so he will be suprised if a borderland army approaches his rear flank.

But is that where RJ intends that army to end up?
I suspect that the army has two possible intended destinations at this point: Cairhein, or Caemlyn. If they approach Caemlyn, it is hard to say how will their presence affect Elayne's crown? How would Elayne react? How would the Blacktower react? If they approach Cairhein, Rand will be very surprised by their presence. However, I think the Aiel presence will be more than enough to hold the city if not push their army back if it comes to a military struggle.

RJ may surprise us with this army by having them get involved in the White Tower conflict. If you look on the map, the Black Hills end very close to Tar Valon. Once the army receives word of the seige, they may choose to become involved. If they do, what side will they choose?

Elayne will be busy gathering her support for the crown. Will she be so busy that she fails to see the darkfriend plot brewing? Elayne should have little difficulty gathering the reigns of power about her.

The Lady Shaine has been ordered by Mordeth to kidnap her. She may have some a reasonable chance of success since she may have some inside help from Adeleas's murderer. However, without direct aid from the forsaken, I think the chances for success are slim to none. Especially with the likes of Aviendha, and Birgette being attached to Elayne's hip.

Nynaeve has been ordered to stay away from the Salidar Aes Sedai. It seems like there is little chance she will receive Lan's bond this book.

Who killed Adeleas and Ispan?
Read this article by John S. Hamby, Craig Moe, and Andrea Leistra: http://www.arkane.demon.co.uk/WOTFAQ/1_dark/1.4_whats-up-dark/1.4.8_ispan-whodunnit.html.

My vote is Pol, Merililel's maid. She is mentioned many times in the first few chapters of Path of Daggers. Pol is introduced in the same paragraph that the remaining Aes Sedai in Ebou Dar are introduced. She is the only nonchanneller introduced with the Aes Sedai group. Why else would RJ give her such a boring character such distinction? Most darkfriend's tend to work behind the scenes. Like as a maid or an assistant (Aran'gar) to an Aes Sedai. Pol -- the maid -- is our viscious killer.

Another odder possibility occured to me. Perhaps the target of the murder was not Ispan at all, but Adeleas. Perhaps another White Tower run away was afraid Adeleas was going to recognize her. So this allegded murderer snuck into the barn and poisoned Adeleas. She then resumed Ispan's shield (or perhaps Ispan was too exhausted to channel). Then the murderer drove a stake through Ispan's heart because she is a darkfriend. Possibly, this alledged runaway is a member of the windfinder's caolition. In Path of Dagger's, the murder occured the day after Adeleas discovered that Garenia (Zarya) was run away novice.

It is really hard to say how Mat's presence will affect the events in Ebou Dar beyond the obvious. The Daughter of the Nine Moon's will be in Ebou Dar according to the jacket text. Mat may be married by the end of the book. I suspect that Mat will still be rooming in the Tarasin Palace.

It appears that Tylin is destined to become Seanchan property because her forces resisted the Hailene. According to Miraj's (a Seanchan general's) thoughts, rebels become property when they are captured. If Tylin becomes Seanchan property, Mat may try to rescue her.

From the gholam's last thoughts, it still wanted to pursue and kill Elayne. However, without direct aid from the forsaken, it has little chance of travelling to Caemlyn from Ebou Dar by the end of Winter's Heart.

The Seanchan will loath advancing any further until they feel that they have enough power to overcome Rand's forces. For now I think the Seanchan have been waylaid. However, they will be spending their time, building up their military fronts. The next time they move militarily will be with tremendous strength unless they manage to get some hold onto Rand. Eventually, they plan on launching a two prong attack: one into Illian and the other into Ghealdan.

On the Amadician front, I suspect that the Seanchan will be attempting to kidnap Perrin. I bet High Lady Suroth may think she can get some hold on Rand that way. Expect to see some Seanchan raiding parties in northern Amadicia, southeastern Ghealdan, and Garens Wall in Altara.

The jacket text claims that the Daughter of the Nine Moons will be entering Ebou Dar. If we needed any further confirmation that she is Seanchan, we have it now. I suspect that Mat's near future will contain a critical wrestling match.

What has been happening on the Seanchan northwestern front?
From the meeting between the High Lady Suroth and Morgause in A Crown of Swords, we learn that Tarabon is not yet completely under Seanchan control. I suspect that Taraboner nationalists and Dragonsworn have been causing her difficulties on this front. Have the Seanchan been consolodating and expanding their northwestern border this whole time. If they have, they may be poised to invade Arad Domain by Winter's Heart.

Presumably, the majority of the Shaido were killed by standing in the way of Rand's Illian invasion army. From the evidence in A Crown of Swords and from Sevanna's thoughts in Path of Daggers, it appears the largest cluster of Shaido (besides in the Aiel Waste) is the Jumai sept.

In that region, only the Seanchan have the power to crush the Jumai Shaido. Two Ashaman do not have enough fire power to over whelm all of the Shaido Wise Ones. If The Prophet's hordes join in Perrin's cause, they might be able to extinguish the Jumai for good. Perrin's forces by themselves will not have the firepower to defeat the Jumai. However, the Jumai are not mobile enough to capture and defeat Perrin's forces.

From Path of Daggers, they are travelling east near Albina, in northern Amadicia. Apparently, they will continue travelling east towards the southern part of Geran's Wall. They may pass through parts of southeastern Ghealdan in the book. They probably are not concerned or even aware that Perrin's forces will be chasing them. This area is not yet controlled by the Seanchan. However, the Seanchan may send some patrols and raiding parties up in that area. Also, Jaichim Carridan recruited and trained bands of Dragonsworn to terrorize the countryside.

According to the jacket text, Slayer will be hunting Perrin in the wolf dream. Well I suspect he will be doing more than stalking Tel'aran'rhoid. Since the High Lady Suroth is a darkfriend, Slayer may work with the Seanchan in some capacity. He might even advise a small raiding force.

Slayer will not try to work with the Whitecloaks. During The Shadow Rising, Slayer was unable to befriend the Whitecloaks because of Padan Fain's association with the them. Jaichim Carridan may have given Slayer an in with the Whitecloaks, but he died at the end of Path of Daggers. Besides, the Whitecloaks would be outgunned and slaughtered in a direct military engagement with Perrin's forces.

The White Tower conflict will be resolved by the end of Winter's Heart.

Who is going to win the Tower Conflict?
It is a draw at this point. The Aes Sedai in the White Tower have two huge advantages. They will be purging themselves of the Black Ajah. The only two black sister's that will be able to escape the purge will be Mesaana, and Alvairin. Other members will have to rely on Mesaana or Alvairin to save them or else they will have to join up with Egwene. Once Egwene discovers the method the Tower Aes Sedai are using to uncover the Black Ajah, she will begin her own purge. The other advantage is that they hold the White Tower with its potentially devasting defensive fortitude.

One huge disadvantage Elaida has is Alvairin's influence over her. How events will fall out with the purge in effect is hard to say, but it should make for great reading.

The three advantages Egwene's side has is their one power intellectual edge, Elaida's unpopularity, and their access to tel'aran'rhoid. If the Aes Sedai help Lord Bryne by making gateways, this action will nullify many defensive advantages in occupying the White Tower. The White Tower conflict may resolve with little blood shed if Elaida is deposed before fighting begins. Bryne will want to starve the city for a bit, so the occupants of the White Tower may have lots of time to depose her. And they may not elect another Amyrlin.

The X factor is Aran'gar. I think her (its?) intentions will be to sow as much dissension as possible during the conflict. But where is Aran'gar going to sow dissension? Will a united White Tower help or hurt the Dark One? Aran'gar's influence over Egwene almost certainly gaurentees that the outcome of the conflict will be to Aran'gar's liking. The only thing that can save Egwene's hide is a male channeller. I see potential for Rand, or Damer Flinn (the talented male healer) to detect the influence that the Forsaken has over her.

The Whitecloaks are done for militarily. Eamon Valda will have learned of the fall of Amador by now, and he will attempt to retake the Fortress of Light. His futile attempt will destroy their military might.

The Whitecloaks will not chase off after Perrin even if they learn of his where abouts. In Eamon Valda's mind, retaking the city is much more important than chasing after one darkfriend.

Rebuttals

Just something I'm not sure of. I don't think PoD took place in the autumn. Wasn't it the "Feast of Light" or something already in book 6, just after Rand was kidnapped? I think that was the new year party. And everyone have been complaining about the warm weather several books now - why would they if it was only a unusual warm autumn? I think they are well into winter, actually getting near spring, now.

Of course, that doesn't mean there will be spring _weather_ since weather seems to be quite messed up. I'm not sure that using the Bowl of the Winds will stabilize the weather any time soon. Maybe they will have to do it again, with men in the circle too...

I agreee with you that Winter's Heart will probably take place in winter climate, but during what would probably be spring if it wall was correct. As I said before, I'm not sure. Maybe someone else knows more about seasons than I?

from a wheeloftime.org poster

She's right...

In Path of Daggers, Faile indicated that the season is Spring.

Yes, I followed the link to your site :) You claim that PoD took place in late fall and/or early winter, with most of the winter season still stretching out ahead of us, waiting to happen. You're wrong. Let me explain:

Toward the end of LoC, we saw riotous holiday celebration in Cairhien - The Feast of Lights (opening paragraphs of Chapter 53, I believe). It was mentioned that it was the last day of the year, the shortest day of the year. The shortest day of the year is the Winter Solstice (around Dec 22 or thereabouts on our modern calendar), and that is indeed the last day of the Randland calendar. Hence, by the time LoC ended with Dumai's Wells, we were already into the first few days of winter in the new year of NE 1000. All of COS and nearly all of PoD was spread out across that winter season.

A very useful site for WoT Timeline research is Tellings of the Wheel: The Chronology of The Wheel of Time (see link below). I will now quote an explanatory paragraph on the subject from the website of that great WoT Scholar, Larry Homer (modest, isn't he?).

Tellings of the Wheel: The Chronology of the Wheel of Time.

This one is also very well done. A great many efforts to construct WoT Timelines have been made at different times, but the author of this one chose to take the calculated risk of assigning EXACT dates (in the Wot Calendar and the 20th Century calendar both) to each scene of each chapter in each of the 8 novels that have been published, even though (as he freely admits) he has to do a lot of guessing as he goes along (in other words, a lot of the dates he assigns are NOT written in stone, but are probably as close as anybody will ever come unless Jordan publishes a Master Timeline). He states that he has done his best to synchronize his assigned dates to Jordan's occasional comments about the current status of the moon (full, half-full, whatever) but I haven't really studied that aspect enough to say how well he did.

For what it's worth, I will add that the creator of Tellings calculates that the Bowl of Winds was finally used to end the drought on Jan 9(our calendar), that Rand survived the renegad Asha'man attack on Feb 9 , that Perrin met Masema and Faile was kidnapped on Feb 19, and that Egwene Gated her army to Tar Valon on Feb 24. If so, then there's about one month of Winter left (the spring equinox would come around March 22) for Winter's Heart to describe to us. And remember that the whole story started on Winternight (last night of Winter, year 998) which means that the first eight books have taken just under 2 years to occur. Rand is fast approaching the second anniversary of the day when he saw his first Myrddraal and his first Trollocs and had his whole life go crazy! We ought to chip in and send him a big cake to help celebrate that special occasion!

Excellent Points!

Larry Homer's analysis is always excellent. As is this analysis. However, this article is not a timeline, it is a prerelease prediction article. Check out his website: Random Threads of the Pattern!
Here is my timeline!